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Bitcoin has been on a roller coaster since the November election. Should you be strapping yourself in, or should you unbuckle and climb out of the car?

The post-election boom pierced $100,000, leading bulls to speculate that seven digits were next as pro-crypto President Donald Trump prepared to take office. Then, a day after the inauguration, a slide of more than 20% began. 

Bulls say buy the dip and watch it rip. But before diving in, ask yourself this: Why should you own crypto? Lets tally up the cases for and against.

Many claim the post-vote gains are justified just the start. Crypto firms were big Trump donors. They expect lighter US regulation and pro-crypto legislation. Trump touts plans for a US federal crypto stockpile! 

Will any of this happen? Unclear. Contrarywise, is increased government involvement in a supposedly decentralized currency actually bullish? Your call.

Its not just the US where investors are pinning hopes on cryptocurrencies and related innovation. New York, Amsterdam, Hong Kong, London, Tokyo virtually every financial hub vies to be cryptos capital.

But what is the case for you to own it? Many see crypto as a diversifier, guarding against currency risks. And new ETFs make it easier to buy. Others envision an inflation hedge. Since Bitcoin supply is capped at a now-approaching 21 million, it cant be endlessly devalued like dollars. Plus, many Bitcoins are lost, likely forever, shrinking supply.

Many downright drool over astronomical gains. Since 2010, Bitcoin soared 160% annualized through 2024s close. It rose 121.6% in 2024 and 52.8% from Trumps win through Jan. 21s high. Explosive.

But while Bitcoin booms, it also bombs. In rolling 12-month spans this decade, Bitcoin returns ranged between 1,402% and negative 74%.

Bitcoin first hit $100 on April 1, 2013. It peaked at $230 eight days later. By July it fell 71% to $66. Later in 2013, it topped $1,000. After that, a nearly two-year, 84% drop ensued. 2018 repeated that. 2024s post-election boom followed a 77% drop in 2022 and 2023. 

These declines approximate US stocks 1929 1932s Great Depression crash happening multiple times in just over 10 years. Poor timing could leave you hung out to dry. Have new bulls hung themselves now? Who knows.

Those swings arent about fundamentals. Crypto has none no industrial use, no earnings, no yield. Most coins are too volatile to be currencies. Even stablecoins (pegged to a major currency) arent always so stable.

Crypto is rife with criminality and money laundering. Sam Bankman-Frieds November 2023 fraud conviction didnt end that. North Koreas Bybit hack last month was cryptos biggest heist ever.

Inflation hedge? No. In June 2022, Americas consumer price index galloped to a high of 9.1%, mirroring global trends. That was during a year in which Bitcoin plummeted 64.2%, failing its one and only inflation test.

As for supply: Yes, Bitcoin is capped but nothing limits crypto overall. While Bitcoin came first, data show that 10,761 cryptocurrencies exist globally nowall competing for survival. There is Ethereum, XRP, Solana, Dogecoin, Trumps coins even a crypto impolitely named flatulencecoin. What differentiates jokecoins and Bitcoin? Hot air.

So what explains cryptos swings? Pure sentiment.

Can you time the mood swings? I cant. If not, can you hold long term when it nosedives say 80%? Did stocks latest drop churn your gut?  Can you handle 10 times that?

Note that emotions dont help. With volatile assets, people often buy after big gains, like 2024s, on fear of missing out (FOMO). When prices fall, they sell from fear of holding on (FOHO), crystalizing losses.

Buy high, sell low. FOMO, FOHO. Ive seen many repeat this disastrous pattern with volatile commodities and stocks for 50 years. And yes when it comes to volatility, crypto is right up there with the wildest, scariest roller coasters around. Can you stomach that?

Ken Fisher is the founder and executive chairman of Fisher Investments, a four-time New York Times bestselling author, and regular columnist in 21 countries globally.

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