Vladimir Putin isnt going to make this easy for Donald Trump.
For weeks, Trump has bragged about his close relationship with his Russian counterpart and declared that Putin wanted to bring a quick end to the war that he, of course, started more than three years ago. Trumps national-security team worked with Ukraine to come up with a 30-day cease-fire proposal in hopes of persuading Moscow to accept it. And his press secretary declared yesterday that Ukraine and Russia were on the 10th yard line of peace.
But when the two men spoke today, Putin had his own ideas.
Putin did agree during the more-than-two-hour call to halt strikes on Ukrainian energy infrastructure, and he pledged to continue negotiations. But that limited deal fell far short of what the White House had forecast in recent days, and it now confronts Trump with a dilemma. In order to secure the peace he has promised, he might have to engage in something he has yet to do: get tough with Putin.
Trump, predictably, dressed up his call with Putin as a win, posting on social media that the conversation was a very good and productive one.
The peace process is now in full force and effect, and we will, hopefully, for the sake of Humanity, get the job done! he wrote.
In truth, Putin offered next to no concessions, and his goal, according to a Kremlin readout of the call, remains maximalist: preventing Ukraines rearmament and sovereignty. In order for him to accept Trumps full cease-fire proposal, Putin said, Ukraine would have to stop rearming its military and sending new soldiers to the front lines, and all foreign governmentsincluding the United States and Kyivs European allieswould have to stop sending military assistance or intelligence to Ukraine.
Read: Trump is Nero while Washington burns
Taken together, those demands would severely weaken Ukraines ability to defend itself, and Trump did not agree to them in the call. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, speaking with reporters in Ukraine after the Trump-Putin call, expressed skepticism about Putins motivations and made clear that no lasting deal could be made without his nations involvement. Still, he added, if there is a partial cease-fire, this is a positive result, and he signaled that Ukraine would accept the limited agreement, even though it would allow Russia to continue to pummel his nations cities and towns.
If the strikes on energy infrastructure indeed stop, it would be the most significant mutually agreed suspension of attacks in the war. A senior White House aide framed that to me as a major achievement, the first step toward a broader peace (Trump long ago abandoned his campaign promise to end the war in 24 hours). But Trumps national-security team will now need to debate a course of action, and the aide, who requested anonymity to discuss internal conversations, conceded that difficult decisions lie ahead. Will Trump allow the U.S. to pressure Moscowby toughening sanctions on Russia or increasing aid to Ukraineto push Putin to soften his demands? Or will Trump once more defer to Putin and isolate Kyiv?
The partial cease-fire holds benefits for both sides. Ukraine has struggled for years with Russias attacks on its energy grid, which at times have plunged cities into darkness and cold. But agreeing to the deal also was in Putins interestUkraine has recently ratcheted up its attacks on gas and oil facilities deep in Russian territory, weakening Moscows most crucial stream of revenue at a time when the nations war-weary economy is struggling.
Marc Polymeropoulos, a former U.S. intelligence official who is a Trump critic, told me that Putins demand for an end to those strikesand his willingness to relinquish his own militarys ability to do the sameis proof that the strikes are having a much more severe effect than even we imagined. Putin wants them to stop. Thats a pretty good measure of effectiveness.
Thats all that Putin was willing to give up, though, and he telegraphed his intent to keep the war going or, at least, to end it only on terms that he could dictate. According to the Kremlin readout of the call, Putin insisted on the absolute need to eliminate the root causes of the crisis, which include, in Moscows view, Ukraine seeking security guarantees from the West, such as admission to NATO or the European Union. Putin also suggested cutting Kyiv out of future negotiations, leaving the talks solely between Washington and Moscow. And his demand for a complete end to all foreign military support to Ukraine is simply a nonstarter: Even though Trump and Vice President J. D. Vance have previously threatened to discontinue American support for Kyiv, Ukraines European partners have in recent weeks only increased their pledges.
Its clear that Russia remains the obstacle to peace in Europe, Democratic Senator Chris Coons told me in a statement. Im glad to see a halt on infrastructure strikes but many of Putins requestslike a ban on arms or intel sharingmake clear what he is after: a neutered Ukraine that cant defend itself.
Of note: Neither the White Houses nor the Kremlins readout of the call described any discussions between the two leaders over the fate of the territory Russia has seized from Ukraine. Russia has claimed about 20 percent of Ukraines land, beginning with the illegal annexation of Crimea in 2014. Air-raid sirens continued to go off around Ukraine today. Still, the call yielded some positives for Ukraine, which will at least for now continue to receive U.S. assistance as it tries to work out backup plans with Europe in case Trump eventually cuts off Kyiv.
Frankly, this is the Russian playbook of using negotiations as an instrument of armed conflict, Polymeropoulos, the former intelligence officer, told me. But in the grand scheme of things, its probably less bad than everyone imagined. At least the U.S. didnt sell Ukraine down the river.
Read: Trump is offering Putin another Munich
Few in the national-security community are counting on Trump to suddenly align himself more solidly with Kyiv. For weeks, he and his administration have embraced Moscows view of the war in Ukraine. Trump has decreed that Zelensky is a dictator, repeated Putins lie that Ukraine started the conflict, declared that Ukraine didnt have any cards in the negotiations, and already denied Kyivs top wishthat it be allowed to enter NATO, the alliance designed as a bulwark against Russian aggression. The pause in U.S. intelligence-sharing and shipments of military supplies to Ukraine earlier this month allowed Moscow to make gains on the battlefield, most notably in the Russian territory of Kursk, land that had been Ukraines strongest bargaining chip in possible upcoming negotiations. And, of course, in Trumps first term, the United States at times levied tough sanctions against Moscow, only to be undermined by the presidents warm words for Putin, including during their infamous 2018 Helsinki summit.
So far, Trump hasnt done anything to suggest that hes cooling on Putin. When Zelensky didnt give Trump everything he wanted in their Oval Office meeting last month, the U.S. president berated his Ukrainian counterpart, and Trumps allies called for new elections in Kyiv. When Putin didnt give Trump everything he wanted today, the Russian leader still got a friendly Truth Social post from Trump, pledges of further talks, and possibly some hockey games featuring the best players from each country.
But there were signs that Trump wasnt happy with how Putin played his hand. Trump has rarely missed opportunities to chat with reporters during the first eight weeks of his presidency; just yesterday, he fielded questions multiple times, including when predicting that Putin wanted peace, and he often boastfully engages with the press while signing executive orders.
Another such signing was scheduled for the Oval Office this afternoon. But reporters were not invited to watch, depriving them of the chance to ask questions about the Putin call. Trump remained behind closed doors.