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Today, the war in Ukraine ended, at least in a sense.
Bloody fighting between depleted militaries will continue to barely move the frozen front lines. Russian missile and drone raids will still pummel Ukrainian cities and terrorize their citizens. Gutsy, covert Ukrainian strikes will hit deep behind the Russian border.
But a new, and likely final, chapter in the nearly three-year conflict began today with a confluence of clear signals from the United States that it will no longer back Kyivs goals in the war, all but ensuring that Ukraine will not regain its sovereign territory or achieve its most sought-after security guarantees.
Ukrainians have warily watched Donald Trump reclaim power, knowing his longtime deference toward Russian President Vladimir Putin and having heard his promise to end the conflict in 24 hours, which always seemed like a way to codify Russian war gains. Although Trump failed in fulfilling that pledge, he has made no secret of wanting to bring about a quick end to the fighting.
And when he interjected himself into the conflict today, he did so in telling fashion: by calling Putin, a move that White House framed as the beginning of a negotiation to end the war in Ukraine.
We each talked about the strengths of our respective Nations, and the great benefit that we will someday have in working together, Trump wrote on Truth Social after the call. But first, as we both agreed, we want to stop the millions of deaths taking place in the War with Russia/Ukraine. President Putin even used my very strong Campaign motto of COMMON SENSE. Only afterward did Trump call Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky to inform him of the conversation.
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Trump and his top advisers rewarded Putins patience to continue the conflict through the November U.S. election, likely enabling him to strike a deal closer to his liking as Russia and Ukraine finally consider a negotiated end to the war. Before his call with Zelensky, Trump wrote on Truth Social that he would tell Zelensky that he and Putin agreed to have our respective teams start negotiations immediately, pushing Ukraine to the sidelines of its own war. In his own social-media post, Zelensky later described his call with Trump as having been meaningful. But Trump didnt promise Zelensky the same meeting he offered Putin; Zelensky will meet with Vice President J. D. Vance at this weeks Munich security conference.
Taken together, the events today reinforced that Ukraines leverage is slipping away. Just as Trump and Putin spoke, U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth declared, in an appearance at NATO headquarters, that achieving Ukraines main objective in the warto restore its borders as they were before 2014, when Russia annexed Crimeawas unrealistic. Chasing this illusionary goal will only prolong the war and cause more suffering, Hegseth said in Brussels.
Hegseth chose the occasion to declare, as well, that the Trump administration does not support Ukraines desire to join NATO as part of any peace plan, a position that Putin has long opposed, not wanting to bring the alliance to his border. And Hegseth urged Europe to take on more responsibility for its own defense, saying that it should no longer count on Washington as it has in the past.
That sentiment has alarmed Kyiv, which has relied on the United States for much of the financial and military assistance that has allowed it to repel Russias invasion. There are voices which say that Europe could offer security guarantees without the Americans, and I always say no, Zelensky said just days ago. Security guarantees without America are not real security guarantees.
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The war has gone nowhere near as Putin first envisioned, but now he clearly has momentum. The Kremlin this week rejected a Zelensky proposal to swap territory that Ukraine seized during a counteroffensive in Russias Kursk region for some of the land that Putins war machine had captured since the start of the invasion. Trump told reporters at the White House late this afternoon that it was unlikely that Ukraine gets all of its land back. The Kremlin spokesman Dimitri Peskov told reporters today that Putin had told Trump of the need to eliminate the root causes of the conflicta signal that Moscow will not accept a simple cease-fire in Ukraine and instead will seek broader concessions from the West before it stops fighting.
That a presidential phone call happened at all was a major milestone for Putin, signaling the end of Western efforts to isolate him. President Joe Biden broke off contact with his Russian counterpart after the February 2022 invasion, and his administration steered tens of billions of dollars of financial assistance and weapons toward Ukraine. But the new administration has made clear that it would cut aid to Kyiv. Trump aides have said the president sees an opportunity to end a conflict and try to stabilize relations with Moscow. To that end, a prisoner swap was brokered yesterday that returned teacher Marc Fogel to the U.S. after hed spent three years at a Russian labor camp.
Trump also wrote on Truth Social that he and Putin had agreed to work together, very closely, including visiting each others Nations. In March 2023, the International Criminal Court issued an arrest warrant for Putin following an investigation of war crimes, crimes against humanity, and genocide in Ukraine. An invitation to the United Statesand potentially the White Housewould be rightly perceived as Trump welcoming Putin back to the democratic worlds good graces even after an unjustified invasion of a sovereign neighbor.
Trump told reporters that he and Putin might first meet at a neutral site, floating Saudi Arabia as a possibility. An eventual visit to Moscowan invitation confirmed by Peskov, the Kremlin spokesmanwould also be Trumps first as president and another remarkable moment in his long entanglement with Russia. (The last U.S. president to visit Russia was Barack Obama, for a G20 summit in 2013.)
After U.S. intelligence agencies concluded that Russia interfered on Trumps behalf in the 2016 election, his first administration still occasionally took a hard line against Moscow. But Trump often sided with Putin, including at their 2018 summit in Helsinki. At a joint news conference there, I asked Trump whom he believed about election interference, Putin or his own intelligence agenciesand the U.S. president made clear that he sided with his Russian counterpart.
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He seems ready to do so again. When Trump named his negotiating team with Russia, he mentioned Secretary of State Marco Rubio; John Ratcliffe, the CIA director; his national security adviser, Michael Waltz; and his Mideast envoy, Steve Witkoff. But he did not list Keith Kellogg, the retired general named as envoy for Russia and Ukraine. Kellogg has generally taken a more aggressive posture toward Russia than Trump and is disliked in Moscow.
Yesterday, the Senate confirmed former Representative Tulsi Gabbard as Trumps new director of national intelligence. Gabbard has received scrutiny for her previous comments about Russia and has been accused by Democrats of adopting Kremlin talking points, including when she suggested, shortly after the war started, that Moscow had been provoked into invading Ukraine.
Her selection as DNI was praised by Russian state media, surely a first for anyone in the position. And in another act of symbolism on a day full of them, Trump hosted Gabbards swearing-in ceremony in the Oval Office late this afternoon. He then took a few questions, including one about whether he viewed Ukraine as an equal member of this peace process.
Trump paused.
Thats an interesting question, he finally said. I think they have to make peace.
He did not answer further.